Population vs. Pandemic, Debt, Climate?
Homo sapience species started in 2020 to reduce their population to the limits imposed by survival parameters and the size of the planet Earth in the Solar system. Let’s understand the concept of Population vs. Pandemic according to Foerster-Prigogine Law.
Auto reduction of the world population
Foerster-Prigogine law
In the middle of the twentieth century, an American mathematician, physicist, and cyberneticist Heinz von Foerster deduced the formula for the civilization of homo sapience. Around the same time, the Belgian physicist Ilya Prigogine, who won a 1977 Nobel prize, answered the question: Why does the complexity of systems, that is, evolution, happen in nature?
Studying the population data available to him from different eras, Heinz von Foerster was surprised to find that a very simple mathematical formula describes population growth on the planet. You can count the number of people on earth in any year of our era. For it is enough to substitute the desired year into the formula.
Why should population size be subject to any formula? It’s even outrageous! Are people unintelligent species that grow in the Petri dish per simple mathematical law describing the curve? In different eras on the planet, there were thousands of different races, nationalities, and nations. They united in states with different religions, cultures, languages, customs, and laws.
They fought, made alliances, or vice versa, or did not know about the existence of each other. They thought about different things and lived differently. They had different sorrows, victories, and defeats. They created the greatest works of art, studied the world, loved and hated.
It turns out that none of this matters at all. All human history, which we diligently study at school, turned out to be just a candy wrapper with a multi-colored pattern of events. The pattern may vary but doesn’t affect the candy.
It doesn’t really matter what people have done or haven’t done throughout the history of humanity. It turned out that nothing depended on them. They were carried by a huge wave of natural law that none of them could influence.
According to the law of hyperbolic function, this is a significant blind natural element that increases the number of people on the planet. It turned out that different cultures and peoples scattered around the planet, not even knowing about each other, represent a single system, one physical whole.
It is fashionable to talk about different civilizations on our planet: Chinese, Russian, American, and other civilizations. However, the discovery of Heinz von Foerster and other scientists who rushed to study a strange phenomenon was arbitrarily refuted by historians.
It turned out that the difference in cultures and customs is entirely unimportant to the national characters and the very history of different peoples. Because all this represents parts of one whole, elements of earthly civilization, growing and living by the same law.
Our civilization is an integral organism, a creature, the same as a person. We can look under the microscope at the individual cells of the human body and see how strongly the cells of the liver are different from nerve cells, but at the same time understand that this is one organism.
Examples
By creating land and sea networks to reach new territories and develop commerce, humans ensure an exchange of deadly illnesses and plagues. See Silk Road that brought the bubonic plague to Europe, and decimated half of its population. See conquest by Spain of Americas that ruined Aztecs and Incas, decimated their populations but brought in exchange malaria and syphilis back.
By XXI century Agriculture turns into Agroindustry. To raise the output of poultry, pork, and beef, it adds antibiotics and hormones. To raise profits it squeezes hens, swine, and cattle into boxes and cages, it reduces their lifespan with genetic engineering.
To make superprofits humans don’t spare their own health. AKA by replacing sugar in soft drinks with sweeteners and introducing fast foods that contain glutamate, which turn consumers into fast-food addicts, humans become overweight diabetics and reduce their multiplication.
Following the raising of living, social and educational standards of the population women limit the number of children they bear. LGBT movement turns sex, religion, and childbearing into a farce.
By 2020 vested interest start an operation of the reduction of the population worldwide. Mass media runs an unbridled fearmongering pandemics campaign. Governments are pushed into lockdowns that damage the world economy and the livelihoods of millions.
According to population genetics and anthropology, our homo sapiens subspecies sapiens (anatomically modern humans H.s.s) has grown to the alleged population of 7.5 billion from a group of 200-300 persons that appeared in Africa 120-150 000 years ago and moved back and forth through Sinai to Eurasia, Australia, North and South America.
H.s.s were formed as aggressive and prone to multiplication in geometrical progression species. It had its cognitive revolution and reached as the hunter-gatherer the top ladder of mammal species by the end of the Ice Age was blocking its multiplication. Ice Age ended 12,000 years ago, and the omnivore species began an agricultural revolution to unfold its multiplication capacities.
Population growth led to the domestication of plants and animals and permanent settlements that turned into kingdoms and empires that invented script, money, and religions. Neither wars nor plagues couldn’t stop this growth.
Scientific, industrial revolutions, and social revolutions that took place 500, 200, and 100 years have, on one hand ago, accelerated the growth of the population and, on the other, produced ways and means for conflicts between kingdoms, empires, and ideologies.
Population vs. Pandemic: Background
The global population is increasing by about 1.5 percent per year, a growth rate (should it persist) that, in less than half a century, will double the number of people living on the planet.
Modern medical techniques are producing life extension but not healthy life extension, and we are seeing numbers of old and chronically sick or disabled elderly people in increasingly longer economically unproductive retirements, they are the first to die in covid pandemics.
The ability of the Earth to sustain the human population, posed by Malthus over 200 years ago, is a serious question. Food and energy demands are increasing. Dependence on finite resources for energy and water is already threatening international stability. Exponential population growth can only make matters worse.
Improving economic development in the most populous countries of the developing world (India, China) is leading to changing patterns of demand as people seek more affluent lifestyles. Consequently, the birth rate is decreasing there.
Air quality resulting from over-rapid industrialization is becoming a major problem that will have major public health effects. The likely determinants of climate change, usually attributed to the developed nations, are now spread throughout the developing world, making the ability of nations to achieve the targets signed up at Kyoto unlikely to be achieved.
Rather than simply equating population policy with family planning, the new thinking is that population growth should be stabilized – and development enhanced – by attacking some of the roots of the problem: by improving women’s access to education, health care, and economic and political decisions.
Examples from various cultures
China has operated a one-child policy for a number of years, enforced through a system of fines, relaxed after mass bereavements such as the Sichuan Earthquake; the focus of China on population control helps provide better health services for women and a reduction in the risks of death and injury associated with pregnancy.
At family planning offices, women receive free contraception and pre-natal classes. Help is provided for pregnant women to monitor their health closely. Culturally, the traditional religious practice requires a son to perform the parents’ funerals, leading to resistance to the policy in some rural areas when the firstborn is a girl.
Growth has indeed slowed, yet during 1996, China added 13 million people to its numbers. Rural folk have been less cooperative; however, the one-child policy has achieved statistical wonders. In one generation, China’s birth rates have plunged to 1.9 children per mother – a rate that, if sustained, will lead to depopulation.
According to a recent survey, ethnic minorities are currently growing about 7 times faster than Han Chinese. The Chinese government has canceled the one-child law in June 2021.
The decline in population growth rate has exacerbated another problem familiar in the West: rapid aging. There will be 129 million Chinese over the age of 60 as of the year 2000. By 2020, one in four will be elderly (twice the total present population of the United States) – a rare burden for a low-income country.
The sex ratio at birth (between male and female births) in mainland China reached 117:100 in the year 2000, substantially higher than the natural baseline, which ranges between 103:100 and 107:100. This suggests differential abortion if the sex is known antenatally.
India operates a two-child policy. During the 1970s, they used forced sterilization of the poor. India has greatly increased food production per head over the last 20 years, making it better placed to absorb higher numbers. The country’s most recent approach to population issues focuses on the advancement of women economically, academically, and socially, as independent women are more likely to have small families.
Africa: birth rates in Africa are the highest in the world. By the year 2050, twenty percent of the world’s population will live on the African continent. That will be almost two thousand million people, up from eight hundred fifty-five million people today. Especially large population growth is expected in Nigeria, Ethiopia, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Other countries likely to have major growth include Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, Somalia, and Uganda.
Kenya was the first country in sub-Saharan Africa to view runaway population growth as a serious impediment to economic prosperity, and it became the first, in the late 1960s, to begin developing a national family-planning campaign. The country’s official population policy calls for matching population size with available resources yet leaves decisions on family size up to individual families.
As recently as 1970, Africa was essentially self-sufficient in food. What fostered a breakdown in the continent’s ability to feed itself has been a decline of nearly 1 percent per year in per capita grain production since 1968 – in part due to annual population growth for the continent approaching 3 percent.
The root cause of Africa’s crisis, according to Worldwatch Institute analyst Lester Brown, is population growth faster than on any continent in history, widespread soil erosion and desertification, and a failure by African governments to adequately support agriculture.
Europe: By contrast, France offers financial incentives for larger families (3 children).
The population of Europe is also aging faster than any other part of the world except Japan. Birth rates are also down in many European countries. The number of people depending on workers will rise as the number of workers falls. Spending in European countries will have to increase for retirement, health care, and long-term care for old people in the future.
Russia faces the most severe population decrease of any country. The population of Russia is now one hundred forty-three million. It is expected to drop twenty-two percent over the next forty-five years. If this happens, Russia could lose more than forty percent of its active workforce and have economic problems. Part of the problem is the short length of time that Russian men generally live.
The average life expectancy for Russian men is just sixty-six years. Russian women live eleven years longer. Men in Western Europe live sixteen years longer. Drugs, tobacco smoking, and alcohol are some of the main causes of death among Russian men. Russia also has low birth rates.
to be continued..
Hypothesis 01
The coronavirus epidemic in China that turned by 2020 into a pandemic in the global village is an inevitable product of globalization.
The COVID-19 pandemic is allegedly the only reason for the lockdowns in the countries producing over 85% of the world’s GDP with a population of 4.7 billion.
Lockdowns in China, Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore, and Japan have stopped the epidemics. with draconian quarantine measures and the availability of medical manpower, equipment, and hospitals.
Lockdowns in democratic countries that either can’t apply complete quarantine or don’t have adequate medical manpower, equipment, hospital beds, or both may prove to be much more destructive than constructive.
Fact 01
The allegation that pandemics originated in the centralized state capitalism of communist China is irrelevant. As China became 2020 the largest manufacturing economy and exporter of goods, the severing of the supply chains led to the contraction of the world GDP and social unrest.
Fact 02
The epidemic of SARS in 2002-2003 did not cross the borders of China and did not turn into a pandemic. In 2002, China was just the 4th manufacturing economy in the world. Nowadays, it is the first one. Will China become the only one by 2025?
Fact 03 – Spanish flu January 1918 – December 1920
An unusually deadly pandemic involving the H1N1 virus affected 500 million people, or about 27% of the world population of 1.8 billion, with the death toll as high as 100 million young adults.
Massive programs of vaccination in 1895-1918 based on the research of Louis Pasteur, Ferdinand Cohn, and Robert Koch, founders of microbiology and bacteriology, coincided with 15-18 years time-lag with the Spanish flu pandemic with the high mortality rate for young adults.
Hypothesis 02 – Coronavirus to write off the world debt
World powers have found a solution to delete the global debt. Indeed, The top borrowers in the world – the United States, China, Europe, and Japan—account for 3/4 of global debt, exceeding by 50% their share of global output.
Ways and Means for debtor nations
Forecast for 2020
a) expected infection (I) in 2021 up to 200 million;
b) expected death rate of 2% from coronavirus; (D);
c) expected number of death in 2020, I x D = 4 million,
AKA compares well with the Spanish flu 1918-20
Fact: an annual average of 500 000 flu deaths in 2009-2019;
Hypothesis 03 – Origin of the COVID pandemic
An optimistic case. Genetical engineering research on the military, political, and/or ideological competing agenda in China, USA, Israel, UK, and Russia. A man-made virus always has an antidote vaccine to be released upon the achievement of the objectives of the agenda. The population accepts massive vaccination, even if it has infertility as a side effect. Controlled reduction of the world population to the size defined by the agenda.
A pessimistic case. The pandemic is a result of the mutation of coronavirus uncontrolled by humans. Genetic engineering research develops a vaccine against COVID-19 ASAP that may have infertility as a side effect. AKA, vaccines against Ebola or AIDS stop COVID-19 but have infertility as collateral. Uncontrolled reduction of the world population by die-outs until it develops immunity. The size of the reduction is a guess.
Corollary
History will repeat itself. Surviving historians will rewrite history to suit the surviving powers.
Population statistics wargame
The population of 20 major cities in China is 250 million; 50% of the population lives in cities, grain production is 500 million tons, and rice is 200 million tons. The average per-head consumption, including transformation, is 1 ton per annum. The population estimate does not exceed 700 million.
The population of 20 major cities in India is 75 million; 15% of the population lives in cities, grain production is 300 mln tons, and rice is 200 mln tons. The average per-head consumption, including transformation, is 1 ton per annum. The population estimate does not exceed 500 million.
Corollary: the actual population is closer to 6 than 8 billion people.
H.s. sapiens subspecies barely survived the Ice Age that started 110,000 years ago and finished 10,000 years ago, but it was followed by “stimulating” Little Ice Ages and volcanic eruptions. We enter 2020 into the New Little Ice Age, increased climate instability, and volcanic activity.
Europe had good luck with the early medieval warm period from 850 to 1350, followed by the Little Ice Age of 1350 to 1850, which literally pushed it into the Renaissance and Enlightenment and induced scientific and technical superiority compared to Eurasia. From 1452 to 1850, Europeans colonized the Globe.
The present Chart of climate waves is based on ice core probes from Greenland is irrefutable, historical legends referred thereto are not. Being based on erroneous chronology invented in the XVII century all events, empires, and kingdoms prior to the XVI century “related” in consensual history are alleged.