Population vs. Pandemic, Debt, Climate?
Homo sapience species started in 2020 to reduce their population to the limits imposed by survival parameters and the size of the planet Earth in the Solar system. Let’s understand the concept of Population vs. Pandemic according to Foerster-Prigogine Law.
Auto reduction of the world population
Foerster-Prigogine law
In the middle of the twentieth century, an American mathematician, physicist, and cyberneticist Heinz von Foerster deduced the formula for the civilization of homo sapience. Around the same time, the Belgian physicist Ilya Prigogine, who won a 1977 Nobel prize, answered the question: Why does the complexity of systems, that is, evolution, happen in nature?
Studying the population data available to him from different eras, Heinz von Foerster was surprised to find that a very simple mathematical formula describes population growth on the planet. You can count the number of people on earth in any year of our era. For it is enough to substitute the desired year into the formula.
Why should population size be subject to any formula? It’s even outrageous! Are people unintelligent species that grow in the Petri dish per simple mathematical law describing the curve? In different eras on the planet, there were thousands of different races, nationalities, and nations. They united in states with different religions, cultures, languages, customs, and laws.
They fought, made alliances, or vice versa, or did not know about the existence of each other. They thought about different things and lived differently. They had different sorrows, victories, and defeats. They created the greatest works of art, studied the world, loved and hated.
It turns out that none of this matters at all. All human history, which we diligently study at school, turned out to be just a candy wrapper with a multi-colored pattern of events. The pattern may vary but doesn’t affect the candy.
What people have done or haven’t done throughout human history doesn’t really matter. It turned out that nothing depended on them. They were carried by a huge wave of natural law that none of them could influence.
According to the law of hyperbolic function, this is a significant blind natural element that increases the number of people on the planet. It turned out that different cultures and peoples scattered around the planet, not even knowing about each other, represent a single system, one physical whole.
It is fashionable to talk about different civilizations on our planet: Chinese, Russian, American, and other civilizations. However, historians arbitrarily refuted the discovery of Heinz von Foerster and other scientists who rushed to study a strange phenomenon.
It turned out that differences in cultures and customs are entirely unimportant to the national character and the very history of different peoples. Because all this represents parts of one whole, elements of earthly civilization, growing and living by the same law.
Our civilization is an integral organism, a creature, like a person. We can look under a microscope at the individual cells of the human body and see how strongly liver cells differ from nerve cells, but at the same time understand that this is one organism.
Examples
By creating land and sea networks to reach new territories and develop commerce, humans ensure an exchange of deadly illnesses and plagues. See the Silk Road that brought the bubonic plague to Europe and decimated half of its population. See the conquest by Spain of the Americas that ruined the Aztecs and Incas, decimated their populations, but brought malaria and syphilis back in exchange.
By the XXI century, agriculture turns into Agroindustry. To raise the output of poultry, pork, and beef, it adds antibiotics and hormones. To boost profits, it squeezes hens, swine, and cattle into boxes and cages; it shortens their lifespans with genetic engineering.
To make superprofits, humans don’t spare their own health. AKA by replacing sugar in soft drinks with sweeteners and introducing fast foods that contain glutamate, which turns consumers into fast-food addicts, humans become overweight diabetics and reduce their multiplication.
As living, social, and educational standards rise, women limit the number of children they bear. LGBT movement turns sex, religion, and childbearing into a farce.
By 2020, vested interests start an operation to reduce the population worldwide. Mass media runs an unbridled fearmongering pandemic campaign. Governments are pushed into lockdowns that damage the world economy and the livelihoods of millions.
According to population genetics and anthropology, our homo sapiens subspecies sapiens (anatomically modern humans H.s.s) has grown to the alleged population of 7.5 billion from a group of 200-300 persons that appeared in Africa 120-150 000 years ago and moved back and forth through Sinai to Eurasia, Australia, North and South America.
H. sapiens evolved as an aggressive and prone-to-multiplication species in geometrical progression. It had its cognitive revolution and reached the top of the mammal species ladder as a hunter-gatherer by the end of the Ice Age, which blocked its multiplication. The Ice Age ended 12,000 years ago, and the omnivore species began an agricultural revolution to unlock its multiplication capacity.
Population growth led to the domestication of plants and animals and to permanent settlements that became kingdoms and empires that invented script, money, and religions. Neither wars nor plagues could stop this growth.
Scientific, industrial, and social revolutions that took place 500, 200, and 100 years ago have, on one hand, accelerated population growth and, on the other, created new means for conflict between kingdoms, empires, and ideologies.
Population vs. Pandemic: Background
The global population is increasing by about 1.5 percent per year, a growth rate (should it persist) that, in less than half a century, will double the number of people living on the planet.
Modern medical techniques are producing life extension but not healthy life extension, and we are seeing numbers of old and chronically sick or disabled elderly people in increasingly longer economically unproductive retirements; they are the first to die in covid pandemics.
The Earth’s ability to sustain the human population, as Malthus questioned over 200 years ago, is a serious question. Food and energy demands are increasing. Dependence on finite resources for energy and water is already threatening international stability. Exponential population growth can only worsen the situation.
Improving economic development in the most populous countries of the developing world (India, China) is changing demand patterns as people seek more affluent lifestyles. Consequently, birth rates are decreasing there.
Air quality from rapid industrialization is becoming a major problem with serious public health effects. The likely determinants of climate change, usually attributed to developed nations, are now spread throughout the developing world, making it unlikely that nations will meet the targets set at Kyoto.
Rather than simply equating population policy with family planning, the new thinking is that population growth should be stabilized – and development enhanced – by attacking some of the roots of the problem: by improving women’s access to education, health care, and economic and political decisions.
Examples from various cultures
China has operated a one-child policy for a number of years, enforced through a system of fines, relaxed after mass bereavements such as the Sichuan Earthquake; the focus of China on population control helps provide better health services for women and a reduction in the risks of death and injury associated with pregnancy.
At family planning offices, women receive free contraception and prenatal classes. Staff help pregnant women monitor their health closely. Culturally, the traditional religious practice requires a son to perform the parents’ funerals, leading to resistance to the policy in some rural areas when the firstborn is a girl.
Growth has indeed slowed, yet during 1996, China added 13 million people to its numbers. Rural folk have been less cooperative; however, the one-child policy has achieved statistical wonders. In one generation, China’s birth rates have plunged to 1.9 children per mother – a rate that, if sustained, will lead to depopulation.
According to a recent survey, ethnic minorities are currently growing about 7 times faster than Han Chinese. The Chinese government canceled the one-child law in June 2021.
The decline in population growth rate has exacerbated another problem familiar in the West: rapid aging. There will be 129 million Chinese over the age of 60 as of the year 2000. By 2020, one in four will be elderly (twice the total present population of the United States) – a rare burden for a low-income country.
The sex ratio at birth (between male and female births) in mainland China reached 117:100 in the year 2000, substantially higher than the natural baseline, which ranges between 103:100 and 107:100. This suggests differential abortion if the sex is known antenatally.
India operates a two-child policy. During the 1970s, it used forced sterilization of the poor. India has greatly increased food production per head over the last 20 years, putting it in a better position to support higher numbers. The country’s most recent approach to population issues focuses on advancing women economically, academically, and socially, as independent women are more likely to have small families.
Africa: birth rates in Africa are the highest in the world. By the year 2050, twenty percent of the world’s population will live on the African continent. That will be almost two billion people, up from eight hundred fifty-five million today. Nigeria, Ethiopia, and the Democratic Republic of Congo are expected to see especially large population growth. Other countries likely to have major growth include Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, Somalia, and Uganda.
Kenya was the first country in sub-Saharan Africa to view runaway population growth as a serious impediment to economic prosperity, and it became the first, in the late 1960s, to begin developing a national family-planning campaign. The country’s official population policy calls for matching population size with available resources yet leaves decisions on family size up to individual families.
As recently as 1970, Africa was essentially self-sufficient in food. What fostered a breakdown in the continent’s ability to feed itself has been a decline of nearly 1 percent per year in per capita grain production since 1968 – in part due to annual population growth for the continent approaching 3 percent.
The root cause of Africa’s crisis, according to Worldwatch Institute analyst Lester Brown, is population growth faster than on any continent in history, widespread soil erosion and desertification, and African governments’ failure to adequately support agriculture.
Europe: By contrast, France offers financial incentives for larger families (3 children).
Europe’s population is also aging faster than any other part of the world except Japan. Birth rates are also down in many European countries. The number of people depending on workers will rise as the number of workers falls. Spending in European countries will have to increase for retirement, health care, and long-term care for old people in the future.
Russia faces the most severe population decrease of any country. Russia’s population is now one hundred forty-three million. It is expected to drop by twenty-two percent over the next forty-five years. If this happens, Russia could lose more than forty percent of its active workforce and have economic problems. Part of the problem is the short lifespan of Russian men.
The average life expectancy for Russian men is just sixty-six years. Russian women live eleven years longer. Men in Western Europe live sixteen years longer. Drugs, tobacco smoking, and alcohol are some of the main causes of death among Russian men. Russia also has low birth rates.
to be continued..
Hypothesis 01
The coronavirus epidemic in China, which became a pandemic in the global village by 2020, is an inevitable product of globalization.
The COVID-19 pandemic is allegedly the only reason for lockdowns in countries producing over 85% of the world’s GDP, with a population of 4.7 billion.
Lockdowns in China, Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore, and Japan have stopped the epidemics. They did so with draconian quarantine measures and access to medical manpower, equipment, and hospitals.
Lockdowns in democratic countries that either can’t apply complete quarantine or lack adequate medical manpower, equipment, hospital beds, or both may prove far more destructive than constructive.
Fact 01
The allegation that pandemics originated in the centralized state capitalism of communist China is irrelevant. As China became the world’s largest manufacturing economy and exporter of goods in 2020, severing supply chains led to a contraction in world GDP and social unrest.
Fact 02
The SARS epidemic in 2002-2003 did not cross China’s borders and did not become a pandemic. In 2002, China was just the 4th manufacturing economy in the world. Today, it is the first. Will China become the only one by 2025?
Fact 03 – Spanish flu January 1918 – December 1920
An unusually deadly pandemic involving the H1N1 virus affected 500 million people, or about 27% of the world population of 1.8 billion, with the death toll as high as 100 million young adults.
Massive programs of vaccination in 1895-1918 based on the research of Louis Pasteur, Ferdinand Cohn, and Robert Koch, founders of microbiology and bacteriology, coincided with a 15- 18-year time lag with the Spanish flu pandemic, with the high mortality rate for young adults.
Hypothesis 02 – Coronavirus to write off the world debt
World powers have found a solution to delete the global debt. Indeed, the top borrowers in the world—the United States, China, Europe, and Japan—account for 3/4 of global debt, exceeding their share of global output by 50%.
Ways and Means for debtor nations
Forecast for 2020
a) expected infection (I) in 2021 up to 200 million;
b) expected death rate of 2% from coronavirus (D);
c) expected number of deaths in 2020, I x D = 4 million,
AKA compares well with the Spanish flu 1918-20
Fact: an annual average of 500 000 flu deaths in 2009-2019;
Hypothesis 03 – Origin of the COVID pandemic
An optimistic case. Genetic engineering research on the military, political, and/or ideological competing agenda in China, USA, Israel, UK, and Russia. A man-made virus always has an antidote vaccine released once the agenda’s objectives are achieved. The population accepts massive vaccination, even if it has infertility as a side effect. Controlled reduction of the world population to the size defined by the agenda.
A pessimistic case. The pandemic results from a coronavirus mutation uncontrolled by humans. Genetic engineering research develops a vaccine against COVID-19 ASAP that may have infertility as a side effect. AKA, vaccines against Ebola or AIDS stop COVID-19 but have infertility as collateral. Uncontrolled reduction of the world population by die-outs until it develops immunity. The size of the reduction is a guess.
Corollary
History will repeat itself. Surviving historians will rewrite history to suit the surviving powers.
Population statistics wargame
The population of 20 major cities in China is 250 million; 50% of the population lives in cities, grain production is 500 million tons, and rice is 200 million tons. The average per-head consumption, including transformation, is 1 ton per annum. The population estimate does not exceed 700 million.
The population of 20 major cities in India is 75 million; 15% of the population lives in cities, grain production is 300 mln tons, and rice is 200 mln tons. The average per-head consumption, including transformation, is 1 ton per annum. The population estimate does not exceed 500 million.
Corollary: the actual population is closer to 6 than 8 billion people.
Homo sapiens subspecies barely survived the Ice Age that started 110,000 years ago and finished 10,000 years ago, but it was followed by “stimulating” Little Ice Ages and volcanic eruptions. We entered 2020 into the New Little Ice Age, with increased climate instability and volcanic activity.
Europe had good luck with the early medieval warm period from 850 to 1350, followed by the Little Ice Age from 1350 to 1850, which pushed it into the Renaissance and Enlightenment and spurred scientific and technical superiority compared to Eurasia. From 1452 to 1850, Europeans colonized the Globe.
The present Chart of climate waves is based on ice core probes from Greenland; historical legends referred thereto are not. Being based on erroneous chronology invented in the XVII century, all events, empires, and kingdoms prior to the XVI century “related” in consensual history are alleged.